Executive Summary
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb polycarbonate (PC) yas xa tawm yog npaj rau kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb hauv 2025, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev hloov pauv cov qauv kev xav tau, kev tswj hwm kev ruaj khov, thiab kev lag luam geopolitical dynamics. Raws li kev ua haujlwm siab ntawm cov yas yas, PC tseem ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv tsheb, hluav taws xob, thiab kev siv kho mob, nrog rau kev lag luam xa tawm thoob ntiaj teb tau kwv yees kom ncav cuag $ 5.8 billion los ntawm xyoo 2025, loj hlob ntawm CAGR ntawm 4.2% los ntawm 2023.
Kev Lag Luam Tsav Tsheb thiab Kev Sib Tw
1. Sector-Specific Demand Loj hlob
- Hluav taws xob tsheb Boom: PC xa tawm rau EV Cheebtsam (them chaw nres nkoj, roj teeb vaj tsev, teeb qhia) xav tias yuav loj hlob 18% YoY
- 5G Infrastructure Expansion: 25% nce hauv kev thov rau cov khoom siv PC ntau zaus hauv kev sib txuas lus
- Medical Device Innovation: Loj hlob export ntawm kev kho mob-qib PC rau cov cuab yeej phais thiab cov cuab yeej kuaj mob
2. Regional Export Dynamics
Asia-Pacific (65% ntawm kev xa tawm thoob ntiaj teb)
- Tuam Tshoj: Tswj kev tswj hwm nrog 38% kev lag luam sib koom tab sis ntsib teeb meem kev lag luam
- Kaus Lim Qab Teb: Tawm los ua tus thawj coj zoo nrog 12% kev loj hlob xa tawm hauv high-end PC
- Nyiv: tsom rau cov qib PC tshwj xeeb rau kev siv kho qhov muag
Teb chaws Europe (18% ntawm exports)
- Lub teb chaws Yelemees thiab Netherlands ua tus thawj coj hauv kev ua haujlwm siab PC xa tawm
- 15% nce hauv cov khoom siv rov ua dua PC (rPC) kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev lag luam ncig
North America (12% ntawm kev xa tawm)
- Tebchaws Asmeskas xa tawm mus rau Mexico raws li USMCA cov cai
- Canada tawm los ua tus xa khoom ntawm bio-based PC lwm txoj hauv kev
Trade thiab Pricing Outlook
1. Raw Material Cost Projections
- Benzene tus nqi kwv yees ntawm $ 850- $ 950 / MT, cuam tshuam rau PC cov nqi tsim khoom
- Cov neeg Esxias xa tawm FOB tus nqi yuav tsum nyob ntawm $ 2,800- $ 3,200 / MT rau qib txheem
- Cov nqi kho mob-qib PC kom ncav cuag 25-30% siab dua tus qauv
2. Txoj Cai Kev Lag Luam cuam tshuam
- Muaj peev xwm 8-12% tariffs ntawm Suav PC xa tawm mus rau EU thiab North America
- Cov ntawv pov thawj kev ruaj ntseg tshiab uas yuav tsum tau muaj rau European ntshuam (EPD, Cradle-to-Cradle)
- US-Tuam Tshoj kev lag luam tensions tsim lub cib fim rau cov neeg Esxias sab hnub tuaj exporters
Kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes
Cov tswv yim tseem ceeb Export rau 2025
- Cov Khoom Tshwj Xeeb: Txhim kho cov nplaim hluav taws kub thiab cov qib optically superior
- Sustainability Focus: Kev nqis peev hauv chemical recycling technologies
- Regional Diversification: Tsim kom muaj ntau lawm hauv ASEAN lub teb chaws kom dhau los ntawm tariffs
Kev Sib Tw thiab Lub Sijhawm
Kev Sib Tw Loj
- 15-20% nce hauv cov nqi ua raws li REACH thiab FDA daim ntawv pov thawj
- Kev sib tw los ntawm lwm cov ntaub ntawv (PMMA, hloov PET)
- Logistics cuam tshuam hauv Hiav Txwv Liab thiab Panama Canal cuam tshuam rau cov nqi thauj khoom
Cov Sijhawm Tawm Tshiab
- Middle East nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam nrog cov peev txheej tshiab
- Teb chaws Africa raws li kev lag luam ntshuam loj hlob rau kev tsim kho-qib PC
- Kev lag luam ncig ua lag luam tsim $ 1.2 nphom kev lag luam rau cov khoom siv rov ua dua PC
Cov lus xaus thiab cov lus pom zoo
2025 PC export kev lag luam nthuav tawm ob qho tib si cov nyom thiab cov cib fim tseem ceeb. Exporters yuav tsum:
- Diversify ntau lawm puag los txo cov kev pheej hmoo geopolitical
- Kev nqis peev hauv kev tsim khoom lag luam kom tau raws li EU thiab North American cov qauv
- Tsim cov qib tshwj xeeb rau kev loj hlob EV thiab 5G sectors
- Tsim kev koom tes nrog cov neeg siv khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab los ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm kev lag luam ncig
Nrog rau kev npaj tswv yim tsim nyog, PC cov neeg xa khoom tuaj yeem tshawb xyuas qhov nyuaj 2025 kev lag luam ib puag ncig thaum muaj peev xwm loj hlob ntawm kev thov hauv cov ntawv thov txuas ntxiv mus.
Post lub sij hawm: Jun-25-2025