Walter Hart, Tus Thawj Coj Thoob Ntiaj Teb ntawm Olefins ntawm S&P Global Energy CERA, tau hais rau ntawm Lub Rooj Sab Laj Thoob Ntiaj Teb Petrochemical tias kev kaw tag nrho ntawm Strait of Hormuz yuav cuam tshuam loj heev rau cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam petrochemical hauv Es Xias. Cov chaw ua khoom siv ncu hauv Middle East yuav raug yuam kom kaw, thaum lwm lub Hoobkas hauv Es Xias yuav txo qis kev ua haujlwm vim muaj cov khoom noj tsis txaus.Kev tsim cov ethylene thoob ntiaj teb hauv xyoo 2026 yuav poob qis li ntawm 22 lab tons, sib npaug rau 12% ntawm xyoo 2025 cov zis.
Kev kub ntxhov ntawm tub rog hauv Gulf tau cuam tshuam cov khoom siv petrochemical feedstock. Kwv yees li 29 lab tons ntawm cov peev xwm ethylene txhua xyoo hauv thaj av Gulf tam sim no offline, nrog rau kev kaw tag nrho hauv Iran, Kuwait thiab Qatar, thiab lwm cov nroj tsuag Middle Eastern khiav ze rau tus nqi qis tshaj plaws. Qhov no twb tau txiav cov khoom tsim ethylene hauv cheeb tsam los ntawm kwv yees li 15 lab tons.
Middle East muaj li ntawm 35 lab tons ntawm ethylene muaj peev xwm, uas yuav luag 6 lab tons nyob sab nraum Persian Gulf. Qhov no tawm mus29 lab tons ntawm Gulf lub peev xwm ethylene raug cuam tshuam ncaj qhalos muab kev cuam tshuam.
Kev poob siab ntawm cov khoom siv tau kis mus thoob plaws Gulf. Kev tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom noj khoom haus naphtha thiab roj av tau yuam cov chaw tsim khoom siv roj av thoob plaws Asia kom txo cov nqi khiav lag luam. "Ntau tshaj ib nrab ntawm lub peev xwm thoob ntiaj teb tau raug cuam tshuam," Hart tau hais. Ntxiv rau 29 lab tons uas raug cuam tshuam hauv Gulf, kev poob qis ntawm cov khoom noj khoom haus tau cuam tshuam txog li 105 lab tons ntawm cov peev xwm ethylene hauv Asia.
Tsis suav nrog thaj tsam Gulf, Hart kwv yees7–8 lab tons ntawm kev tsim khoom ethylene thoob ntiaj tebyuav ploj mus rau xyoo no vim yog cov kab mob ntawm cov khoom siv. Cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau tias kev tsim cov ethylene thoob ntiaj teb tau txog 185 lab tons hauv xyoo 2025, nrog rau tag nrho cov peev xwm ntawm kwv yees li 232 lab tons.
Qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb tau cuam tshuam loj heev rau Middle East kev xa tawm polyethylene (PE) thiab ethylene glycol (EG) mus rau Asia, ua rau cov saw hlau rau polyolefins, polyester thiab PET puas tsuaj.
Kev thov ethylene mus sij hawm ntev tseem xav tias yuav loj hlob, txawm tias qeeb qeeb. Hart kwv yees tias cov nqi ua haujlwm thiab cov nyiaj tau los yuav tsis rov zoo tag nrho kom txog thaum ntxov txog nruab nrab xyoo 2030, thaum qhov kev thov nce ntxiv nrog cov peev xwm ntxiv tshiab.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Plaub Hlis-10-2026